2024 First Four picks from proven model

Teams that are looking for respect on a national level meet Wednesday to close out the 2024 First Four as the Colorado Buffaloes take on the Boise State Broncos. The winner will take the No. 10 seed in the South Region and move on to face No. 7-seeded Florida on Friday. Both the Buffaloes and Broncos expressed surprise and disappointment at their inclusion in the First Four, an indication they were among the last clubs included in the 68-team NCAA Tournament field. But both have also vowed to make the most of the opportunity.

Tipoff is set for 9:10 p.m. ET from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. The Buffaloes are 3-point favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 143.5 in the latest Colorado vs. Boise State odds via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Boise State vs. Colorado picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Colorado vs. Boise State in the First Four 2024. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Boise State vs. Colorado:

Colorado vs. Boise State spread: Colorado -3
Colorado vs. Boise State over/under: 143.5
Colorado vs. Boise State money line: Colorado -165, Boise State +138
CU: The Buffaloes have won 20 of 25 games this season in which they were favored.
BSU: The Broncos are 15-8 against the spread in their past 23 games.
Colorado vs. Boise State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Colorado can cover
The mindset of teams regarding their seeding line and NCAA Tournament game venue can play a big part in their motivation, and there’s little doubt this edge belongs to Colorado. Buffaloes coach Tad Boyle said he knew his team was something of a longshot heading into the conference tournament, and he wasn’t even sure that an appearance in the title game would be enough to be included in the field.

Boyle told the media he had a feeling that if the Buffaloes were included, there was a decent chance they would have to play in the First Four. He not only doesn’t mind but said getting the nod among the last teams considered helps make up for numerous years he felt Colorado deserved a spot but was left at home.

“I knew this would be a possibility of playing on a Wednesday, and we are, but we’re excited. It’s like a new life. It’s like being reborn,” Boyle said.

Conversely, video of Boise State’s reaction to being pegged for the First Four showed the Broncos recoiling in disbelief and disappointment as they apparently believed they were a lock to be included in the main 64-team field. See which team to pick at SportsLine.

Why Boise State can cover
When the seeds were announced on Selection Sunday, Boise State coach Leon Rice at first led the chorus of grumblings for a team that apparently felt it deserved to be included in the main 64-team field instead of the First Four. However, Mountain West Conference foe Colorado State, a club with a nearly identical resume, also was sent to Dayton and had to earn its way into the main bracket with a win over Virginia on Tuesday night.

However, once the initial disappointment subsided, Rice decided to take a different approach for getting the Broncos motivated for their game against Colorado. He first said the Broncos would use the perceived snub as motivation to prove the committee wrong on their seemingly low opinion of the Mountain West, which had just one team get out of the first round last season.

Rice amended his stance to mirror that of Colorado State coach Niko Medved, who took the approach that playing and winning a First Four game would turn into a major advantage by the time the official First Round matchup materialized.

“The seed doesn’t matter, location doesn’t matter, brackets don’t matter … because you’ve got to find a way to win,” Rice told the media. See which team to pick at SportsLine.

How to make Boise State vs. Colorado picks
The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 145 points. It also says one side of the spread hits 60% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

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